China Q3 growth seen bouncing 3.4%, but 2022 set for worst performance in decades

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China Q3 growth seen bouncing 3.4%, but 2022 set for worst performance in decades





The third quarter for China's economy is likely to underline the intensifying challenges at home and abroad, a Reuters poll showed, as an expected rebound in growth will still leave it poised for one of its worst years in almost half a century.

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Stringent COVID-19 curbs in the world's second-biggest economy, disruptions to energy and food supplies caused by the Ukraine crisis and slowing global growth due to sharp rises in borrowing costs to curb red-hot inflation have all conspired to darken the outlook.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 3.4 per cent in July-September from a year earlier, quickening from the 0.4 per cent pace in the second quarter, according to the median forecast of 40 economists polled by Reuters.

On the face of it, the rebound appears sturdy although recurring COVID flare-ups and a deepening property slump have meant the economy isn't firing on all cylinders.

Growth is expected to pick up to 3.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, bringing the 2022 pace to 3.2 per cent, far below the official target of around 5.5 per cent. Excluding the 2.2 per cent expansion after the initial COVID hit in 2020, it would also be the worst performance since 1976 - the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that wrecked the economy.